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I see that Cambridge Electricity Analysis Associates continues to possess a radically distinct view of future (2015) oil offer:
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From August 2004 to November 2004, Saudi manufacturing goes flat even though price ranges haven't been introduced under Handle and are still climbing. My interpretation is this level of production was the maximum feasible at enough time. Other folks manage to believe that generally speaking perhaps the Saudis improved their method and made the decision better price ranges have been high-quality plus they'd choose to earn more money by voluntarily reining in manufacturing. I'm undecided if any one thinks this conclusion was taken as early as August 2004, but I do think to clarify the information in B as voluntary holding back, one would need to make that assumption (and that is rather problematic For the reason that Saudis would have no foundation for shifting their check out from the effect of such selling prices on the globe financial system however).
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It doesn't show up to me that, from the timing point of view, this phenomenon is very well put to clarify any declines that offset regardless of what portion on the 690kbd of Qatif megaproject generation arrived on in late 2004 and early 2005 (zones B-D).